🔗 Share this article

Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."

• Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
• Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington without results

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in the president's attempts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a long record of supporting the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.

Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.

The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.

Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.

The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.

"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.

However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.

"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the war is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.