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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.