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The Ashes may offer a reason to cheer, but this contest will also witness the Australian team host more birthday parties than Timezone in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day prior to the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Older Squad Interest Builds

For two or three years there has been mounting curiosity with the age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test side being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a disadvantage: a Test squad featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any team knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of simultaneous departures, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a process that would indeed be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Australian squad in the space of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two key bowlers missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Test matches entering the attack after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how tricky stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in series and a pattern of initially small injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the contest may see the primary four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this level is not the place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that train a-coming, rolling round the bend, and England hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.